Phase 5 — Simulation & hyperstition risk

Status: Phase 5.0 (v0.3.0)
Label: All simulation outputs are SPECULATIVE
Hard rule: brier is always null — never invent scores; never auto-settle.

Modules

Module	Schema	Role
simulate_cultural_transmission	hyperlex.cultural_transmission.v1	Multi-community cascade with decay
run_multi_agent_memetics	hyperlex.multi_agent_memetics.v1	Role lattice (innovator → amplifier)
forecast_hyperstition_risk	hyperlex.hyperstition_risk.v1	Composite risk tier for real-world systems
build_family_phylogeny	hyperlex.phylogeny.v1	Lightweight family tree scaffold
run_phase5_scenario	hyperlex.phase5_scenario.v1	Compose all of the above

Package path: hyperlex.simulation.

Cultural transmission

Discrete-time adoption across abstract communities (origin_niche → archive_residual).
Effective β scales with virality hybrid. Resistance rises toward institutional slots.

python3 scripts/hyperlex.py simulate --mode transmission --term rizz --virality 0.7

Multi-agent memetics

Agents: innovator, early_adopter, mainstream, skeptic, amplifier.
Exposure accumulates from adopted agents’ broadcast weights; adopt when exposure ≥ role threshold.

python3 scripts/hyperlex.py simulate --mode agents --term "locked in" --agents 24

Hyperstition risk

Composes stage, virality, lineage, memetic score, optional transmission/agent summaries
into risk_score + tier (LOW | MODERATE | ELEVATED | CRITICAL).

python3 scripts/hyperlex.py simulate --mode risk --from-analyze --term "sharp money" --domain markets

Domains: general, markets, ai, politics (notes only; score drivers are shared).

Phylogeny scaffold

Not a full linguistic phylogeny — registry terms + optional backfill first_seen_month as a tree for research / diagrams.

python3 scripts/hyperlex.py simulate --mode phylogeny --family brainrot-aura

Full scenario

python3 scripts/hyperlex.py simulate --term "sigma rizz" --mode scenario --domain ai --out out/phase5/scenario.json
python3 scripts/hyperlex.py simulate --from-analyze --term "agentic slop" --domain ai --verbose

Transmission calibrate (0.3.6)

Advisory β/γ grid-search against settled pairs. SPECULATIVE — not Brier.

python3 scripts/hyperlex.py simulate --mode calibrate

Scenario library + compare

python3 scripts/hyperlex.py simulate --mode compare --list-scenarios
python3 scripts/hyperlex.py simulate --mode compare --term "rizz"
python3 scripts/hyperlex.py simulate --mode compare --scenario viral_cascade --term "rizz"

Research export

python3 scripts/hyperlex.py simulate --mode export --term "rizz" --export-dir out/research

Risk → scan schedule (0.3.7)

Advisory mapping from hyperstition risk tier to LIVE_EMERGENCE_SCAN cadence and Hermes cron job envelopes. Does not auto-register cron jobs.

python3 scripts/hyperlex.py risk-schedule --list-tiers
python3 scripts/hyperlex.py risk-schedule --tier ELEVATED --schedule-out /tmp/hlx-cron
python3 scripts/hyperlex.py simulate --mode schedule --term "rizz" --domain ai

API: plan_scan_from_risk, plan_scan_from_term, plan_scan_from_tier, write_scan_plan, aggregate_scan_risk, TIER_POLICY.

Post-scan: scan attaches scan_risk_advisory from lineage coverage.

Multi-term seeds (0.3.9)

Free-text seeds that contain multiple lexicon atoms expand automatically:

python3 scripts/hyperlex.py terms-split "sigma rizz locked in"
# → ["sigma", "rizz", "locked in"]

python3 scripts/hyperlex.py simulate --term "sigma rizz locked in" --domain ai
# → hyperlex.phase5_multi_term.v1  (one scenario per atom)

python3 scripts/hyperlex.py simulate --term "sigma rizz locked in" --no-expand
# → single blended scenario (opt-in only)

API: split_seed_terms, run_phase5_multi_term, run_phase5_scenario(..., expand_terms=True).

Integrity

1. Simulation does not rewrite receipts or ledgers.
2. Simulation does not write score-log settlements.
3. Use extract_forecasts + operator settle if you want Brier later.
4. Treat tiers as research signals for scan frequency and archival diligence — not market advice.
5. Independent lexicon atoms are never density-stacked into one primary lineage when multi-term.

Research lineage

Distilled (not reimplemented) from arXiv concepts already listed in DESIGN:

• Cultural transmission (2203.00715)
• Virality / diffusion (2510.05761)
• Hyperstition loops (2410.23794)
• Memetics protocol (2407.11861)